Latest posts
- Apple Revenue Risk: 3 Powerful Steps to Estimate PDIn this post, part of my revenue risk series, I use SEC EDGAR data to build an Apple revenue risk framework based on historical revenue impairment events. The objective is to estimate a 4-quarter realized impairment frequency, which I refer to as PD₁ by analogy with Probability of Default (PD). In the previous post, Revenue… Read more: Apple Revenue Risk: 3 Powerful Steps to Estimate PD
- Revenue Risk: 3 Models for Measuring DownsideRevenue risk is the risk that realized revenue will be lower than expected or below a defined threshold. This post introduces a new series dedicated to revenue risk. I will write several pieces each month about this personal project, including the modeling choices, assumptions, results, and limitations. I want to build a framework that focuses… Read more: Revenue Risk: 3 Models for Measuring Downside
- Nvidia’s Revenue Is Booming. So Is their Financial Support Around It.Over the same period, a broad measure of Nvidia’s disclosed financial exposures to customers and suppliers increased much faster than revenue itself. That is the most striking conclusion I get from Nvidia’s latest filings. Between October 2025 and the latest disclosed figures, Nvidia’s trailing-twelve-month revenue increased from $187 billion to $303 billion, an increase of… Read more: Nvidia’s Revenue Is Booming. So Is their Financial Support Around It.